Sales of Dubai homes priced above AED 10 million fell to 669 in the third quarter of 2026, according to the estate agency Savills. That is 23% fewer than the 871 recorded in the second quarter and 43% fewer than the 1,165 of a year earlier. Prices at the top of the market held up better than the count of deals. Savills puts the median for prime apartments at AED 5,237 per square foot, 4.0% higher than a year before, and the median for prime villas and townhouses at AED 2,791 per square foot, 3.6% higher.

The figures are from Savills' Dubai residential report for the third quarter, published on 12 October 2026. Savills links the decline to fewer new project launches and a more selective market, with less off-plan buying than at earlier peaks.

Over the quarter, the prime apartment median rose 4.2% and the prime villa and townhouse median 1.8%. The report does not say how it defines prime homes for these price series or how many sales stand behind each median, so the numbers describe the part of the market Savills tracks rather than every expensive house or apartment in the city. Savills lists three landmark sales for the quarter. They are a villa on Palm Jumeirah at AED 260 million, a villa at Hills View in Dubai Hills Estate at AED 252 million, and an apartment at Aman Residences at AED 166 million. The report gives no dates or other details for these deals.

The wider market shows the same pattern of fewer sales without a broad fall in values. Across all price bands, Savills counted about 34,500 residential transactions worth AED 70.8 billion in the quarter, down 4% in number and 14% in value from the second quarter. Average prices across all apartments fell 4.8% and across villas and townhouses 3.3%. Comparing the same kinds of property, however, Savills finds apartments down 1.7% and villas and townhouses unchanged, and it reads the gap as a change in the mix of homes being sold rather than a general cut in prices. Savills says only about 5,000 new units were launched in the quarter.

These are an estate agency's own figures, not an official statistic. Savills sells homes in Dubai, and the report's authors include its head of residential agency for the Middle East, so the description of a resilient prime market comes from a firm with an interest in it. The report credits the data to Savills Research and does not name the underlying transaction records.

Two points in the report bear on what comes next. The Central Bank of the UAE raised its base rate by 25 basis points to 3.9% from 17 September 2026, following the US Federal Reserve, and Savills expects the increase to reach mortgage costs with a delay. Savills also counts more than 525,000 homes scheduled for completion between 2027 and 2030, which it says makes population and household growth increasingly important for absorbing that supply.

How a buyer can test a prime Dubai purchase against softer rents and the UBS bubble reading is set out in Dubai prime: a buyer's stress test for 2026.

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Sources

Sources read 13 October 2026 (SGT).